Foul Wind Blowing in the Middle East
In the Middle East, bellicose threats and saber-rattling are a fact of life. Recent developments, however, are suggestive of a coming storm, even by the turbulent standards of the region.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, who resides in Damascus, warned that the next conflict with Israel would include not just the Gaza Strip, but the entire region. Similarly both Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Mu’alem, and former pro-Syrian Lebanese minister Wiam Wahhab have both warned that Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv, would be targeted in any conflict involving Southern Lebanon, by “hundreds of missiles.”
Both statements may reflect the alleged transfer of 250 km range Fateh-110 missiles transferred from Syria to Hezbollah, as well as a renewal by North Korea to provide Syria with ballistic missile and centrifuge materials, which had ceased following the 2007 Israeli attack on a Syrian reactor.
Syrian made surface to surface missiles would add a superior range to the Hezbollah arsenal, and as they are fired from mobile launchers, would make an Israeli attempt to neutralize them much more difficult than similar operations conducted by the IDF in the Second Lebanon War.
The Lebanese army is unlikely to sit out if Hezbollah is targeted, given recent statements by Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who said that his government would support Hezbollah in the event of an attack:
“I think they’re [Israel is] betting that there might be some division in Lebanon, if there is a war against us,” Hariri said. “There won’t be a division in Lebanon. We will stand against Israel. We will stand with our own people.”
Hariri also called Israeli reconnaissance flights, a routine occurrence over southern Lebanon, “an escalating provocation.” Four days after the Hariri’s statement Lebanese Army anti-aircraft positions opened fire on IAF jets.
Hariri’s realignment with Hezbollah and Syria is worrying, and may represent the final demise of the March 14th “revolution” which agitated for the end of Syrian occupation following the assassination of Hariri’s father Rafiq al-Hariri. Hariri’s realignment with Syria and Hezbollah follows a visit to Damascus, and may represent the political reality of a Lebanese government which includes Hezbollah cabinet ministers. Hezbollah’s influence over the government has only grown since Hezbollah’s showdown with the government in May of 2008 when it occupied large swathes of Beirut.
Tension is obvious on Israel’s northern border. One index for possible trouble, the cost of AK-47 assault rifles on Beirut’s black market. The price has risen to around $1200, 25% higher than it was just prior to 2006 Second Lebanon War. An unrelated warning comes from Saudi Arabia where Saudi officials have indicated that Hezbollah’s military forces have begun moving to high alert status.
On Israel’s border with Gaza, tensions are also rising. According to the Israeli security agency Shin Bet, terror related incidents increased by 57% in January of this year, an index which includes mortar and rocket attacks from Gaza. That recent rise does not include the recent development of explosives from Gaza being floated out to land on Israeli beaches, a tactic initiated by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Fatah’s Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade.
Israeli security has also recently revealed that it had successfully foiled a number of kidnapping attempts by Hamas, targeting Israeli soldiers. The kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit on the Gaza border was a factor in the initiation of the June 2006 IDF operation “Summer Rains,” and a cross border attack and the abduction of the bodies of IDF soldiers played a role in the beginning of the Second Lebanon War.
Other recent events which may signal a coming conflict include the recent assassination in Dubai of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, a senior Hamas commander and arms dealer. According to the Dubai police, al-Mabhouh was killed by an eleven man team all carrying European passports, at least some of which appear to have been counterfeit. Two Palestinians in Jordan, including one who was a Fatah security official were also arrested for providing assistance in the assassination. Hamas has alleged that the attack was conducted by the Israeli Mossad, and Fatah and Hamas have traded accusation about the killing. Mabhouh’s role as an arms provider for Hamas is of interest however, as arms smuggling to Hamas and Hezbollah has remained a major concern for Israel which has carried out several covert operations designed to hamper terrorist rearmament, including the bombing of two truck convoys and a vessel allegedly carrying arms to Hamas from the Sudan. Israeli commandos also interdicted the Francop, a freighter carrying arms, including heavy weapons, headed to Hezbollah from Iran.
It is likely the assassination, whether orchestrated by the Mossad or not, may be used as a provocation by Hamas for future terror attacks.
When examining the growing tension in the region, it would be remiss to ignore Iran, the number one puppet master of Hamas and Hezbollah, and most destabilizing actor in the region, which has recently announced that it has begun to enrich its uranium stockpile above 20%. The move was accompanied by a number of virulent threats from Iran’s top leadership. Iranian Supreme Ayatollah Khamenei likely in reference to the enrichment decision warned, “The Iranian nation, with its unity and God’s grace, will punch the arrogance [Western powers] on the 22nd of Bahman [Feb. 11] in a way that will leave them stunned.” Regarding Israel, in a meeting with members of Islamic Jihad, Khamenei reportedly threatened, “I am very optimistic about the future of Palestine and believe that Israel is moving on the precipice of wane and demise, and God willing its annihilation is for sure.”
Iranian President Ahmadinejad was reported on Iranian state media as echoing these statements, “The nation will deliver a harsh blow to the “global arrogance” on this year’s anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.”
These are not idle threats, but are also are also followed up by actions. Iranian Basij Militia, posing as students, recently staged violent demonstrations against European embassies, reminiscent of the takeover of the American Embassy in 1979. Iranian security forces have cracked down heavily on opposition and reformist organization this month, arresting as many as a thousand protestors on February 11th, as well as shutting down all major email providers, and disrupting SMS (text messaging) during crucial points. U.S Intelligence chief Dennis Blair warned Congress recently that Iran possesses the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, many of which are adapted to deliver nuclear warheads.
In response to this missile threat, the United States has recently bolstered missile defense systems in the Arab Gulf countries and stepped up its naval patrols in the area. The growing concern regarding Iran’s military strength has been echoed by an increase in defense spending by all Gulf Cooperation Council countries, including expenditures on command and control, technology, communications and intelligence gathering.
None of these activities, taken separately, are necessarily indicative of a coming conflict, however together they are highly suggestive. It seems obvious that all parties in the region are gearing up in preparation, awaiting only a spark. Of course the Middle East is a region notoriously difficult to predict, and even the most experienced analyses have been overtaken by events. Nevertheless, the recent provocative statements by Iran, as well as its proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, by Syria and Lebanon, when matched with their actions, suggests that there is more to recent events than just the usual incitement and grandstanding.
The Middle Eastern sands are indeed shifting in an ominous direction.
Kyle Shideler is a Senior Research Fellow for the Endowment for Middle East Truth